F-gas engineer forecasts are underestimated

BELGIUM: Despite a significant increase in the number of F-gas certified personnel in Europe trained on alternatives, previous forecasts of the number required by 2030 may have been grossly underestimated.

A new survey by the European contractors group, AREA, around 367,000 refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump personnel are F-gas certified in the 18 EU countries covered by its membership.

The proportion of F-gas certified personnel trained on alternatives is said to have significantly increased since AREA’s last survey published in 2021. “However, with the new product bans and phase down included in the new F-gas regulation adopted in February 2024, we can predict than our initial forecast that more than 115 000 technicians will need to be trained in the coming years is underestimated,” AREA says.   

HFOs have the highest rate of certified personnel with an average of 40%, but with wide differences between the countries. Hydrocarbons score 29% and 19%, depending on whether the equipment is small or large. AREA also estimates that 21% of F-gas certified personal are trained on CO2 and 12% on ammonia.

“Considering the new product bans and phase down included in the new F-gas regulation adopted in February 2024, the risk of shortage of contractors trained on alternative refrigerants in the coming year cannot be ignored,” AREA says in a statement. “Fortunately, the mandatory certification on alternative refrigerants introduced in the new regulation is a key aspect to increase the number of contractors with the necessary level of competence to ensure safe, efficient and reliable handling of these refrigerants.”

Based on the EU objectives for the roll-out of heat pumps, AREA estimates that approximately 150,000 engineers will be needed to achieve the European objectives of installing at least 10 million additional heat pumps by 2027, whereas this number increase to 300,000 technicians for a total additional deployment of 30 million or more heat pumps by 2030 (as compared to 2020).

The full survey is available here.