Commission delivers first review of the 2050 target and advice on the fourth emissions budget

5 December 2024

• Today the Minister of Climate Change released two reports from the Climate Change Commission on Aotearoa New Zealand’s medium- and long-term climate goals. 

• The first report is a review of the 2050 target – this recommends the target should be updated and should include international shipping and aviation emissions. 

• The Commission is recommending an update to the target to course correct – evidence shows that the world is not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, climate impacts are more severe and happening sooner than expected, and other countries are already doing and expecting more. 

• The second report is advice on emissions budgets – it shows that Aotearoa New Zealand has options to get on track to the current 2050 emissions reduction target, and recommends that the fourth emissions budget be set at 160 MtCO2e. 

A more ambitious 2050 target that is also realistic and affordable  

The country’s 2050 climate target has provided a consistent signal for five years, enabling the Government, business and communities to plan, invest and act to reduce domestic emissions. The Commission is required to review the target every five years, and can recommend changes if specific criteria are met.  

“Our review found significant changes in three of the nine factors we’re required to consider – and that these changes support updating the 2050 target," says Climate Change Commission Chair Dr Rod Carr.  

These significant changes are that since 2019: 

• Global action – the evidence that shows that the world is not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, and other countries are doing and expecting more.

• Climate change is contributing to more frequent and severe weather events, sea level rise and ocean acidification than was expected when the 2050 target was set.

• Increased risks and impacts of climate change have implications for Aotearoa New Zealand’s future. 

“Our analysis shows the country has options available to not only get on track to the current target, but to increase Aotearoa New Zealand’s contribution to global efforts to limit average warming to 1.5°C,” says Dr Carr. “Responding to the significant changes requires further and faster reductions on both sides of the split gas target – and this is possible.

“There’s a lot happening, both domestically and internationally that means many people may ask ‘why should we do more?’ We recognise that the required change has to be feasible, with impacts that can be managed. 

“Our advice shows the recommended 2050 target is both realistic and affordable. Our modelling shows that existing technologies can help achieve more ambitious cost-effective emissions reductions in the short and medium term, and that research and innovation is vital to achieving low cost emissions reductions in the 2040s and beyond.

“For example, since 2019 there has been significant investment by the Government and business into ways to address biogenic methane that means the innovation landscape is different to what it was in 2019. The evidence shows it’s possible for Aotearoa New Zealand to reduce domestic gross emissions while still growing the economy, reducing energy costs, increasing energy security, and improving public health and our local environment.  

“Change is coming – the question is how much the country chooses to steer this change. Doing nothing will likely lead to worse outcomes and higher costs, because delaying action will make the transition more expensive, and more difficult for some sectors and communities. It also risks Aotearoa New Zealand falling behind other countries. 

“The more that is done now to ensure a smooth transition for sectors, communities, and households, the better off the country and New Zealanders as a whole will end up. It’s possible to reach a low-emissions climate resilient future in a fair, equitable and inclusive way, while still growing the economy. 

“Many comparable countries are now doing more and expecting more. This review provides an opportunity for Aotearoa New Zealand to adjust our goal and keep pace with global efforts,” Dr Carr says. 

Emissions budget four sets next stepping stone towards target  

Emissions budgets turn the country’s long term emissions reduction target into measurable and achievable steps. They signal the path to the target so industry and businesses, government and communities have confidence to plan, invest and act. The Commission recommends a level of 160 MtCO2e for the fourth emissions budget period (2036–2040). The fourth emissions budget is critical because it takes Aotearoa New Zealand past the halfway point to 2050. By cutting emissions by more than half (relative to 2022, when the first emissions budget began), it keeps the 2050 target firmly within reach. 

Circumstances have changed since the first three budgets were set, so the Commission is also recommending that emissions budgets one, two and three are updated. Doing so means these budgets will continue to guide action to reduce emissions that make the recommended fourth emissions budget achievable, and put the country on a path to meeting the 2050 target. 

“Our role is to look at government projections for change then use scenarios to look at what is possible, and our recommended budget balances the possibilities we see for action with the impacts of those actions to create a feasible scenario for change,” Dr Carr says. 

“Many of the investments made in low emissions technologies included in our advice would more than pay for themselves in the long term, through fuel savings and lower maintenance costs. We estimate direct financial savings from actions to reduce gross emissions would grow to $1 billion per year by 2040 (the end of the fourth emissions budget period). 

“The Government has choices on how to act. Different choices on how to achieve the budget have different benefits and risks that will affect the economy and communities in different ways. The Government will need to weigh up these options in deciding its path to the target.” 

What happens next 

The Government will consider both pieces of advice, and must respond by the end of 2025. 

Explore the reports and related documents

Review of the 2050 target including whether emissions from international shipping and aviation should be included

Advice on the fourth emissions budget